Back in 2023/2024 vs today, is your singularity timeline/date sooner or farther?

The question is deceptively simple: compared to where you stood in 2023 or early 2024, do you believe the singularity is arriving sooner, or have the last eighteen months pushed it further out? When GPT-4 landed in early 2023, the mood in these communities was close to feverish. Serious researchers were quietly revising timelines downward. The cautious voices were growing louder about near-term risk. Even mainstream technology coverage, which had spent years treating singularity talk as fringe speculation, started publishing earnest explainers. The feeling was acceleration — not someday, but soon. Then something more complicated happened. The models kept improving, but the shape of that improvement started looking less like a clean exponential curve and more like a series of plateaus interrupted by sudden jumps. Reasoning models arrived and genuinely surprised people. But the robotics integration remained slower than the most aggressive forecasts. AGI benchmarks kept getting redefined the moment models got close to them. The goalposts, as they have a habit of doing, moved. Now, in mid-2025, the thread is asking whether the accumulated evidence of the last year and a half has made believers more or less convinced — and the honest answer, based on the texture of these conversations, is that the community has fractured. Some people are closer to certain than ever. Others who were true believers in 2023 have quietly extended their timelines, not because progress stalled, but because they got a better understanding of what they were actually waiting for.

If confirmed as a genuine shift in community sentiment, this matters beyond the obvious. Singularity timeline beliefs function as a leading indicator for capital allocation, talent movement, and policy urgency — the people who hold these views tend to be early employees at frontier labs, angel investors in AI infrastructure, and the researchers writing the papers that eventually shape regulatory frameworks. A bifurcation in their expectations is not just philosophical noise. It signals that the field's most engaged observers have stopped agreeing on the basic shape of what comes next, which creates real divergence in how companies staff, how investors price risk, and how governments decide when to act. The second-order effect is subtler: if the accelerationist wing doubles down while the newly cautious step back, the loudest voices in the room get louder precisely as the picture gets murkier.

Watch for whether any of the major forecasting platforms — Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket — show corresponding timeline shifts in their AGI arrival predictions over the coming weeks, and whether any researchers who contributed to the 2023-era downward revisions choose to publicly update their estimates.

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