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What Predictability Actually Measures (and Why Velocity Is the Wrong Question)

BACKGROUND
2 SIGNALSFIRST DETECTED 21 June 2026
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9 May
The Asymmetry of Change: Why Your Tests Are Looking the Wrong Way

<h2> The Asymmetry of Change: Why Your Tests Are Looking the Wrong Way </h2> <p>A passing build is often treated as a certificate of correctness. In reality, it's a narrow

REPORT · WHEN · Dev.toOPEN STORY
24 May
Why Story Points Don’t Work in the AI Era, And What Should Take Their Place Instead.

<p>Imagine this scenario at your next sprint review meeting: You're looking good on your velocity graph. But half your team is struggling in their own little hell. Estimations

REPORT · WHAT · Dev.toOPEN STORY
26 Jun
Risks in Software Development: How to Match Your Caution to What’s Actually at Stake

<p>There’s one question every developer should ask before they change anything, and almost nobody is taught to ask it.</p> <p>What’s the worst thing that happens if I’m wrong

REPORT · HOW · Dev.toOPEN STORY
19 May
I Refused to Write Specs Until Claude Code Generated Wrong Code Three Times

<p>I read the phrase "spec-driven development" and immediately decided it was for people without taste. Six months later, Claude Code generated a discount system that applied

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7 May
Work Doesn't Start With a Blank Page Anymore

<p>You opened ChatGPT before Slack this morning.<br /><br /> Not for anything complicated. Just to figure out how to begin.</p> <p>That small move is already changing what

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21 Aug
CI Is Green. What Could Still Go Wrong?

<p><a class="article-body-image-wrapper"

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1 Aug
Release notes answer the wrong question

<p>Before every release, somebody generates the notes. It used to take twenty minutes of scrolling the commit log. Now a model does it in four seconds, and there are a dozen

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24 Jul
My LLM drift tracker flagged four regressions this week. All four were wrong.

<p>I run a public board that probes 16 LLMs on a frozen 35-task suite, once a day, and keeps every score. When a model drops against its previous run, it opens a GitHub issue by

REPORT · WHEN · Dev.toOPEN STORY
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