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Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks Need Scenario-Grounded Stress Testing

BACKGROUND
1 SIGNALFIRST DETECTED 5 October 2026
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8 Apr
TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems

arXiv:2604.05364v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally,

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
19 Aug
LiveHouse-TS: An Open-world Living Benchmark for Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2608.17299v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a highly promising paradigm for cross-domain zero-shot forecasting.

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
28 Apr
FETS Benchmark: Foundation Models Outperform Dataset-specific Machine Learning in Energy Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2604.22328v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
3 May
Time Series Foundation Models: A Deep Dive into Strengths and Limitations

<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Most of the content about TSFMs:</p> <ul> <li>Either overhypes their true potential,</li> <li>Or highlights weaknesses that are either irrelevant

OPINION · WHAT · ArtificialInteligenceOPEN STORY
23 Sept
Why Historical Time-Series Data Isn't Enough for Stress Testing

<p>Most teams trust their historical data for good reason. It records what actually happened. It reflects real customers, real markets, and real operating conditions. When it is

REPORT · WHEN · Dev.toOPEN STORY
30 Jun
The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference

arXiv:2606.27711v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
23 Apr
Beyond Coefficients: Forecast-Necessity Testing for Interpretable Causal Discovery in Nonlinear Time-Series Models

arXiv:2604.18751v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
17 Jul
TSSM: Triaxial State Space Model for Global Station Weather Forecasting with Temporal-Variable-Historical Modeling

arXiv:2607.13101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF) is pivotal for localized and extreme weather prediction over key regions. Despite

REPORT · HOW · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
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