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Beyond Answer Confidence: A Controlled Audit of Self-Knowledge in a Black-Box De

BACKGROUND
1 SIGNALFIRST DETECTED 2 October 2026
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6 Oct
Proxy Confidence: Auditing Black-Box LLM Agents with a Surrogate's Log-Probabilities

arXiv:2610.03894v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A deployed LLM agent emits tool calls, queries, and code that can be silently wrong -- by the time the error surfaces, the action

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28 May
Asking Is Not Enough: Protocol Sensitivity in LLM Confidence Calibration

arXiv:2605.27752v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM confidence calibration is often evaluated by comparing two signals: token-probability scores and verbalized confidence. These

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17 Aug
Stable Miscalibration in Large Language Models: A Practical View of High-Confidence Errors

arXiv:2608.13591v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-confidence errors in large language models are often treated as evidence of fragile internal inference. We study a different

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29 Sept
Reasoning Concentrates Errors, and Self-Consistency Never Notices

arXiv:2609.32035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-consistency assumes that independent samples disagree when a model is unsure, so agreement is evidence of correctness. Holding

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16 Oct
Confidence-Calibrated Inference Expansion for Evaluator-Guided Test-Time Reasoning

arXiv:2610.20836v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluator-guided reasoning presents a local control problem at every step: trust the current answer, return a fallback, or spend

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23 Jul
FALCON-Discover: Discovering Concentrated False-Confidence Regions for Calibration

arXiv:2607.18278v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Calibration is usually evaluated in aggregate, but the most dangerous failures are often local: predictions that remain highly

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