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From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimati

BACKGROUND
1 SIGNALFIRST DETECTED 29 June 2026
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2 Apr
Towards Reliable Truth-Aligned Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

arXiv:2604.00445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation (UE) aims to detect hallucinated outputs of large language models (LLMs) to improve their reliability.

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16 Apr
Numerical Instability and Chaos: Quantifying the Unpredictability of Large Language Models

arXiv:2604.13206v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into agentic workflows, their unpredictability stemming from numerical

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26 Mar
Between the Layers Lies the Truth: Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs Using Intra-Layer Local Information Scores

arXiv:2603.22299v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are often confidently wrong, making reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) essential. Output-based

REPORT · HOW · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
31 Mar
Concerning Uncertainty -- A Systematic Survey of Uncertainty-Aware XAI

arXiv:2603.26838v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into

REPORT · HOW · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
4 Aug
TrAC: Trace-Conditioned Answer Consistency for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

arXiv:2608.00422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) can generate fluent reasoning traces that nevertheless lead to incorrect answers, making

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20 Mar
How Uncertainty Estimation Scales with Sampling in Reasoning Models

arXiv:2603.19118v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended

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13 May
The Evaluation Differential: When Frontier AI Models Recognise They Are Being Tested

arXiv:2605.11496v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent published evidence from frontier laboratories shows that contemporary AI models can recognise evaluation contexts, latently

REPORT · WHEN · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
26 Mar
Sample Transform Cost-Based Training-Free Hallucination Detector for Large Language Models

arXiv:2603.22303v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Hallucinations in large language models (LLMs) remain a central obstacle to trustworthy deployment, motivating detectors that are

REPORT · WHAT · ArXiv CS.AIOPEN STORY
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