Four ways prediction-market "arbitrage" numbers lie

<p>Polymarket's crowd gave the 2024 French Open women's champion a 34% chance. She was ranked #2. The eventual champion was ranked #87. The market's confidence in seeding was so

<p>I wanted a cross-venue price comparison for prediction markets and assumed the hard part would be the order books. It was not. The hard part is deciding that two markets are

<p>Order-book imbalance looks simple.</p> <p>Count the bids.</p> <p>Count the asks.</p> <p>Compare them.</p> <p>If bids are much larger than asks, the market looks bullish.</p>

<p><em>This is the short version of the full write-up, which carries every table: <a href="https://gex.live/research/vilkov-0dte-rules-replication" rel="noopener